Global Commitments: An Analysis of the COPs and International Agreements

The next UN conference, to be held in Belém, Brazil, from 10 to 21 November 2025, will mark the 30th gathering of world leaders to confront the challenge of global warming.

Here we look back at some pivotal moments in the history of these climate negotiations, beginning with key dates in the development of scientific understanding of climate change and its causes.

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From Arrhenius to Hansen: evolution of knowledge about the causes of climate change

• ‍‍In the 1890s, the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius carried out calculations on the effect that doubling atmospheric CO₂ levels would have on global temperature. His findings demonstrated how the burning of fossil fuels contributed to the warming of the planet.

• In 1938, the British engineer Guy Callendar put forward the hypothesis of a connection between rising temperatures and the increase in carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels.

• In 1958, the American scientist Charles David Keeling began to measure CO₂ levels systematically, which led to the famous “Keeling Curve” showing a constant rise in CO₂ concentrations.

• In 1988, the climate scientist James Hansen warned the United States Congress about the effects of global warming caused by greenhouse gases from industrial activity.

The road towards climate action: a review of the COPs and the international agreements

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• ‍Second World Climate Conference of the United Nations (1990): the risks of global warming were highlighted and binding objectives on emissions were proposed.

• ‍Rio Earth Summit (1992): the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed, which established the idea of “common but differentiated responsibilities” to address emissions, recognising that developed countries have a greater responsibility due to their historical emissions. This summit also established negotiation pathways to protect biodiversity and achieve other environmental objectives.

• ‍First “Conference of the Parties” (COP) (1995): the signatory countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) met in Berlin, reaching a final agreement that set legally binding emission reduction targets.

• ‍Kyoto Protocol (1997): the “parties” adopted an international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It should be noted that in 2000, after losing the presidential elections in the United States, Al Gore began a worldwide tour giving lectures on climate science and policy. These talks later became the 2006 documentary An Inconvenient Truth. The film won an Oscar, and both Gore and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change received the Nobel Peace Prize.
  In 2001, the President of the United States, George W. Bush, criticised the Kyoto Protocol, announcing the country’s withdrawal. After a complex ratification process, the Protocol entered into force in 2005.

• ‍COP 13, Bali (2007): the delegates worked on a new binding agreement for both developed and developing countries. A key agreement was reached with specific reduction targets for developed countries as well as reduction commitments for developing countries.

• ‍Copenhagen Summit (2009): despite high expectations, a binding agreement to reduce emissions worldwide was not achieved.

• ‍COP 16, Cancún (2010): no new binding targets on emissions were established, but the Green Climate Fund was created. This fund aims to provide support to developing countries so that they can reduce their emissions and adapt to a warmer world. In addition, the Cancún Agreements established the objective of limiting global warming to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.

• ‍COP 17, Durban (2011): the talks failed when China, the United States and India rejected mandatory emission reductions before 2015. Instead, delegates decided to extend the Kyoto Protocol until 2017.

• ‍COP 18, Doha (2012): Russia, Japan and New Zealand opposed establishing new emission targets that included developing nations, and the countries gathered decided to extend the Kyoto Protocol until 2020.

• ‍COP 19, Warsaw (2013): delegates from the poorest countries left the negotiations due to the lack of agreement on climate-related damage.

• ‍COP 21, Paris (2015): a historic milestone (Paris Agreement) was reached with the signing of a global agreement requiring increasingly ambitious emission reduction commitments, known as “Nationally Determined Contributions” or NDCs, for both developed and developing countries. In addition, delegates committed to limiting the rise in the global average temperature to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius. In 2020 the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement.

• ‍COP 26, Glasgow (2021): the United States re-joined the Paris Agreement. The Glasgow Pact set the objective of reducing coal use and regulations for carbon credit trading to offset emissions.

• ‍COP 27, Sharm el-Sheikh (2022): resulted in an agreement to create a Loss and Damage Fund to cover the costs of climate disasters. However, little progress was made in addressing the emissions that contribute to such disasters.

• ‍COP 28, Dubai (2023): presented as an opportunity to take urgent measures and accelerate action against the climate crisis. During this event, progress achieved so far under the Paris Agreement was assessed and an action plan was established to drastically reduce emissions and protect lives and livelihoods.

• ‍COP 29, Azerbaijan (2024): focused on climate finance and the implementation of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate financing, aiming to mobilise at least 300 billion US dollars annually for developing countries by 2035. In addition, progress was made in creating a global health and climate coalition, recognising the interconnection between human health and climate change.

COP 30: “Amazonia, the future of the planet” | Belém, Brazil | 10–21 November

The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP 30) will be held in Belém, Brazil, from 10 to 21 November 2025. This event will be the first in the Amazon region and will focus on the preservation of the Amazon as key to global climate stability. This edition will focus on several crucial topics:

• Climate justice and Indigenous rights: Indigenous communities will be given a voice to participate actively in decisions affecting their territories and cultures.
• Just energy transition: equitable solutions will be sought for the transition towards renewable energies, ensuring that developing countries receive the necessary support.
• Climate finance: mechanisms will be discussed to mobilise financial resources to help the most vulnerable countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

The history of the COPs shows that international commitments only have value if they are translated into concrete actions. COP 30 represents an opportunity to strengthen global cooperation and bring the focus back to climate justice.